By Farms.com
The CattleFax Outlook Seminar at the 2024 Cattle Industry Convention in Orlando shared insights on market trends and weather analysis. The smallest beef cow inventory in 50 years, coupled with robust demand, resulted in record average fed cattle and calf prices in 2023. Despite high prices, expansion may be delayed due to factors like lingering drought, high input costs, limited labor, and market uncertainty. The current cattle cycle foresees a slower and more extended expansion, with heifer retention causing a supply decline by 2026.
Meteorologist Matt Makens highlighted the shift from El Niño to La Niña, predicting increased heat and drought-related issues for the Central and Southern Plains. Kevin Good, VP of Market Analysis at CattleFax, reported a 2% decline in the U.S. beef cow herd, with inventories at 28.2 million head in 2024. Drought conditions impacted over a third of the cow herd in 2023, limiting growth.
CattleFax predicted a decline in feeder cattle and calf supplies in 2024, along with reduced commercial fed slaughter. Beef production is expected to decrease by a billion pounds to 25.9 billion pounds. Mike Murphy, CattleFax COO, forecasted higher cattle prices, with the average fed steer price at $184/cwt. in 2024.