By Jeff Holmquist
With much of California suffering through extreme drought, most would expect hay prices to go through the roof as winter nears.
In recent weeks, however, alfalfa and other-hay prices have declined in the state, reports Norm Beach, a Tracy, CA, hay grower and vice-president of the San Joaquin Valley Hay Growers Association.
“It all has to do with the commodity market coming down so much. A lot of dairies are getting away with feeding a lot less hay. Local dairymen are getting corn delivered to the dairies for $178/ton. It doesn’t make sense for them to buy hay … other than whatever minimum amount of hay they can get away with feeding for roughage.”
Last spring, dry-stock feeder hay topped out around $300/ton, Beach says. Now, decent-quality feeder hay sells for $210-220/ton. High-quality alfalfa averages about $300/ton currently.
Beach expects hay prices to creep back up only if dry conditions continue or commodity prices rise. With reports of healthy corn yields for this year, however, commodity prices likely won’t rise soon, he says.
“So this hay market could just stay stagnant for a while.”
In west-central California, beef-feeder hay is averaging between $220-270/ton, says Jim Warren. He’s a rancher and owner of a cattle auction company called 101 Livestock Market, located in Aromas.
China’s recent rejection of West Coast hay export shipments has helped keep hay supply up and bring prices down, he says.
Ranchers have also cut back on the amount of hay they feed and reduced their herds, Warren adds.
“But I think the major adjustments due to the drought have already been made. From here south, I would say 50% of the cows we once had are now gone.”
Alfalfa yields, because of drought, should be down by 20% in 2014, predicts Dan Putnam, Extension forage specialist with University of California Davis.
“It’s hard to tell exactly what that number will be until the season is completely over. Late in the summer, some of the water is being moved away from alfalfa to corn silage, trees and vines – so alfalfa numbers will be down.”
The yield loss, Putnam says, is “a dramatic drop, and prices are going to be affected. But it’s not as bad as it could be.”
Imperial Valley and Palo Verde Valley have been able to produce full alfalfa crops this year, he says.
“And some of the intermountain areas are okay, although not flush.” Adequate hay harvests in other Western states will help to fill in the supply gap, he adds.
Hay growers are mainly concerned with fields that were left fallow with little or no watering, Putnam says.
“Are those fields going to come back? My thought is that many of them probably will. Alfalfa does reasonably well through long drought periods in terms of survival. It’s a tough crop.”
Fields are more likely to survive if they have residual moisture, the soil has minimal cracking and sandy soils have limited overheating. If rain picks up this fall, alfalfa stands could bounce back just fine, he adds.
But if this winter’s snowpack is low and overall moisture doesn’t improve, growers should be concerned. Continuing snowmelt on Mount Shasta caused a mudslide last week, an unusual occurrence for September and a sign that dry conditions persist.
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