Weather Update: January-like Weather Abates in Time for Thanksgiving

By Aaron Wilson

With a shift in the storm track to the west, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole made their way across the eastern two-thirds of the state on November 11, 2022. This brought 1 to 4.5 inches of rain across the state, decreasing the overall percentage of Ohio currently in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (Figure 1). Western counties remain quite dry, however. Temperatures have also been much colder in its wake, as Arctic air spilled into Ohio for the first time this year. Temperatures since November 12^th have averaged 6-15 degrees below the long-term mean. Light snow showers have accomanied these cold temperatures as well, with the typical Lake Erie snowbelt areas picking up 4-24 inches of snow over this period. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Figure 1: Drought Monitor status for Ohio as of Thursday November 17, 2022.

Forecast

High pressure began taking control on Monday and will continue to do so into Thanksgiving. Expect mostly sunny skies through Wednesday with highs warming from the upper 40s to low 50s on Tuesday into the mid to upper 50s by Thanksgiving. Humidity will be low with breezry conditions, so fire danger will be elevated. Clouds will increase on Thanksgiving with a late day rain shower possible, continuing into Friday. There is some question as to whether a secondary system develops for the weekend, which may keep showery weather around for Saturday and Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.50-1.00 inch of precipitation across Ohio this week (Figure 2).

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7pm Monday November 21 – 7pm Monday November 28, 2022.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14-day outlook for the period of November 29 – December 5, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center have temperatures leaning toward warmer than normal and precipitation leaning wetter than normal (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 46-50°F, a low-temperature range of 30-32°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.65-0.85 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for November 29 – December 5, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.