USDA Lowers Old-Crop US Wheat Stocks; Rebound Projected for 2024-25

The USDA lowered its 2023-24 US wheat ending stocks estimate from last month, but a rebound is projected for 2024-25. 

The USDA’s monthly supply-demand estimates on Friday - which also contained the first outlook for the new-crop marketing year – lowered projected 2023-24 US wheat ending stocks by 10 million bu from last month to 688 million, below the average trade guess of 695 million. Meanwhile, 2024-25 ending stocks were reported at a four-year high of 766 million bu, compared to the average trade estimate of 782 million. 

Wheat futures were trading more than 20 cents/bu higher this afternoon. 

The tightening in the old-crop ending stocks estimate was due to a higher export forecast, which was bumped up 10 million bu from last month to 720 million, still down from 759 million in 2022-23.  

On the new-crop side, US all wheat production for this year is projected at 1.858 billion bu, up 3% from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields. The all wheat yield is estimated at 48.9 bu/acre, up 0.3 bu on the year. 

The first survey-based winter wheat production forecast for 2024 put the crop at 1.278 billion bu, up 2% from 2023 on increased Hard Red Winter and White Winter production more than offsetting lower Soft Red Winter production. Hard Red Winter output was reported at 705 million bu, up 17% from a year ago, while Soft Red Winter production is forecast down 23% at 344 million bu. White Winter, at 229 million bu, is projected up 16% from last year. 

At 2.665 billion bu, total all wheat supplies are forecast up about 6% from 2.522 billion a year earlier, while use is seeing expanding only about 1% to 1.899 billion bu from 1.834 billion in 2023-24 - primarily on higher feed and residual use. New-crop wheat exports are pegged at 775 million bu, up 55 million from the revised 2023-24 exports, which remain at a 52-year low.  

“Increased US exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher exports,” the USDA said. 

Global wheat production for 2024-25 is estimated at a record high 798.2 million tonnes, up from 787.72 in 2023-24. Increased output for India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the US is expected to more than offset reductions for Russia, the United Kingdom, the EU, and Ukraine, the USDA said. 

The 2024-25 crop in No. 1 global exporter Russia is projected at 88 million tonnes, down from 91.5 million in 2023-24, with the country’s exports pegged at 52 million tonnes versus 53.5 million for the current year. Ukraine production is forecast to slip 2 million tonnes from a year earlier to 21 million. On the other hand, the USDA is forecasting this year’s Canadian crop at 34 million tonnes, up from 31.95 million, while the Australian crop is expected 3 million tonnes higher at 29 million. 

Projected 2024-25 world ending stocks are forecast down 4.2 million tonnes on the year at 253.6 million tonnes, the lowest since 2015-16 and below the average trade guess of 257.3 million. Russia and the EU account for the largest reductions, which are partially offset by increases for the US and India. 

The projected 2024-25 season-average farm price for wheat is $6/bu, down $1.10 from last year on higher stocks and lower projected US corn prices.