US hogs expected to rebound with higher production, firmer prices

The US hog sector is expected to post steady gains in 2025, with production forecast to rise 3% to 28.5 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook. 

The rebound follows a profitable 2024, driven by lower feed costs and strong domestic and export demand.

Improved productivity is at the heart of the growth. Although the breeding herd remained virtually unchanged, a 2% increase in litter rates during 2024 supported a larger pig crop. Producer farrowing intentions for early 2025 also point to continued momentum.

Commercial hog slaughter rose 1% in 2024, with average dressed weights also up slightly. That trend is expected to continue in 2025, boosting total pork output.

Lean hog prices are forecast to climb 3% to an average of $65 per cwt, compared to $61.56 in 2024. Tighter beef supplies and sustained global demand are expected to lend price support, despite greater hog availability.

Pork exports rose 4% in 2024 to 7.12 billion pounds, with gains in Mexico and South Korea outweighing declines in China and Japan. For 2025, exports are projected to rise another 3% to 7.30 billion pounds, with the US maintaining its competitive position in global markets.

Imports are also expected to inch up 2% to 1.17 billion pounds, reflecting continued interest in specialty pork products, particularly from the EU and Brazil.