Texas Beef Herd Grows Slightly Amid Record Prices

By Adam Russell

The Texas beef cattle herd grew slightly since January 2024, but the overall U.S. herd remains near its lowest numbers since 1961.

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts expect several factors to continue working against a rebuild of the Texas beef cattle herd. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture beef cattle inventory survey showed the U.S. herd had shrunk another 0.6% to 27.68 million head.

Texas’ beef cattle herd grew by 60,000 head to 4.02 million over last year, according to the USDA report.

Texas beef cattle prices reaching new heights

The historically strong beef cattle market, high input costs and longer-term concerns about drought have stymied a herd rebuild, said Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension statewide beef cattle specialist, and David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension livestock and food product economist, both in Bryan-College Station.

Anderson, professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said 400-500-pound calves averaged $3.89 per pound in the Southern Plains market that includes North Texas and Oklahoma. That weight class of calf sold for $3.29 per pound at the same time last year.

“That’s outrageously high,” he said. “But the lower cattle numbers mean the pressure is going to be on higher calf prices.”

Cleere, associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Animal Science, said even the salvage values for older cows and bulls is at record highs.

“From a rancher perspective, it’s great to see a 2,000-pound bull selling as a packer for $2,500-$3,000,” he said. “So, if salvage values and demand is so high, it’s just another snapshot of how unprecedented the cattle market is.”

Beef cattle prices are up, but so are costs  

Despite the unprecedented market, Cleere said producers are finding it more challenging to find profits due to higher input costs. Everything in ranching costs more than the previous price surge following the 2011 drought.

Cleere said inflation-adjusted prices for a 550-pound calf are lower than in 2013-2014 when ranchers were realizing better margins.

“Ranchers need these record-high prices because it costs more to raise that same 550-pound calf,” he said.

Optimism among Texas ranchers is brimming, especially in areas of the state east of Interstate 35 historically known for forage and beef cattle production. Price outlooks are good, and consistent rainfall have set the stage for a strong spring green-up and flush of cool-season forages.

The flush of cool-season forages like ryegrass and legumes can pack pounds on spring calves and help cows recover for breeding, Cleere said.

Despite the good market and moisture outlooks, Cleere said Texas ranchers have not yet held back heifers above replacement percentages in ways that indicate a herd rebuild.

“The weather has been encouraging, and some ranchers may be thinking about keeping more heifers, but that has to hold,” he said. “Ranchers have good memories, and they may be thinking about the next drought.”

Texas cattle producers proceeding with caution

Cleere said many ranchers may also remember how drastically the beef cattle market dropped in 2016 after a rapid herd rebuild. Ranchers paid top dollar for replacement heifers with the expectation that prices would remain high or go higher. But prices fell, which meant losses at sale barns for the subsequent calves produced by those high-cost heifers.

After the 2012 drought, prices for a 400-500-pound feeder steer peaked at $3.17 per pound in May 2015, Anderson said. By December 2015 those steers brought $1.97 per pound.

That cautious approach, higher input costs and long-term weather outlook for more drought for Texas will likely mean the state never reaches its previous herd numbers again, Cleere said. Land-use changes and fragmentation due to population growth are also taking ranches, forage production, pastures and rangeland out of Texas’ beef cattle production system.

“You see it, even in rural areas, so the reality is, if you look back 10 years, we’re not going to see those same cow/calf numbers that we once did,” he said. “The only thing that would change that is if inputs like fertilizer were dirt cheap so ranchers could ramp up their stocking rates.”

Optimize or maximize production

Despite the challenges, Cleere said Texas cattle ranchers should have good opportunities the next few years. He expects strong price trends to continue and recommends ranchers look for ways to reduce costs and increase profits.

Cleere said it could mean selling calves earlier or later depending on market prices and quality forage availability and/or focusing on cows’ post calving body condition. Smart, timely investments in nutritional supplements or fertilizer applications can provide long-term benefits for operations.

“In this business we oftentimes say optimizing production is the better strategy than maximizing production, but there are times in the cycle where maximizing potential may be the better strategy,” he said. “So, planning for next year’s calf crop by taking care of your productive cows’ nutrition, and helping ease that breed-back could reap big rewards.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

The district received heavy to scattered rainfall with amounts ranging from 0.5 to 5 inches, and many areas received 1-3 inches of rainfall. The last two weeks brought chill hour numbers closer to average, but all crops could still use more chill hours. Wheat, oats and small grains benefited from the moisture, but many fields were struggling. Native pastures were holding, but cool-season grasses looked stressed. Some tanks filled due to rainfall. The cattle market was up, and the sheep and goat market remained steady. Supplemental feeding continued for livestock.

Rolling Plains

The district experienced dry conditions and needed rain. The lack of rainfall put significant stress on the wheat crop. In addition to crop concerns, cattle diets were being supplemented with hay due to insufficient winter wheat and pasture growth for grazing.

Coastal Bend

Light rain showers and cloudy days kept fields and pastures wet and prevented fieldwork. Preplant fertilizer was applied to corn fields, and producers were preparing equipment for the upcoming planting season. Winter grasses and volunteer clover were growing well with recent moisture and fair temperatures. Hay and protein feeding continued for livestock, though cool-season forages were improving.

East

Most of the district received 2-3 inches of rainfall, and some counties received much more. Ponds, creeks and lakes were full or overflowing. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to surplus. Wood County reported flash flooding. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Working conditions in some pastures and fields were difficult due to heavy rains. Temperatures were unusually warm for this time of year. Cattle markets were strong with aggressive buying. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplemental feeding taking place.

Southeast

Soil moisture conditions were short to adequate. Counties experienced wet conditions, with fields and pastures remaining soggy due to frequent rainfall. For some counties, the rains led to challenges for producers such as swollen rivers, saturated soils and stalled forage growth. Producers were providing heavy amounts of hay to cattle, which raised concerns about bale reserves. Some counties reported ideal soil moisture and weather conditions for fieldwork and forage growth while other areas reported difficult working conditions and oversaturated soils and reduced forage quality. Some areas still needed more runoff rainfalls to fill tanks. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to excellent. Oat and wheat conditions ranged from fair to good.

Panhandle

The district experienced warmer conditions. Wheat progressed and showed some growth due to moisture from the most recent wintery mix of precipitation. Farmers distributed composted manure, especially on forage fields harvested for silage in the fall. Supplemental feeding of cattle continued. Overall, soil moisture was short to adequate. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to fair, and crops were in poor to good condition.

North

Counties received much-needed rainfall with cooler overnight temperatures. Counties reported rainfall between 2-6 inches with some flooding reported. Topsoil and subsoil were short to adequate and short with very few at adequate to surplus, respectively. Pasture and range conditions were reported fair and good for most of the counties. The soil moisture benefited soil health and wheat germination. Livestock were in very good condition, but the pastures were still stressed with minimal cool-season grass growth so far. Calving season was underway. The heavy rainfall will make fieldwork difficult in some areas until the ground dries enough.

Far West

The district experienced another week with no moisture. Weather was mostly seasonal with above-average temperatures extending into the mid-80s. Extremely high winds up to 51 mph caused dust storms throughout the district, further drying out soil moisture and causing topsoil erosion late in the week. Fieldwork was ongoing to keep fields from blowing. Dryland wheat fields were in poor condition, and even some irrigated wheat looked poor due to lack of water capacity. Pecan harvest continued in some areas. Many fields remained dry and hard. Pastures were bare and dry. Grass and winter weeds were still in poor condition. Cattle and other livestock remained in relatively good condition, as producers continued to provide supplemental feed.

West Central

Areas received scattered rain that delivered trace amounts up to 4 inches with several areas reporting at least half to 1 inch, but all areas needed more moisture. Rainfall in some areas was heavy enough to fill livestock tanks. Temperatures were unseasonably warm. Growth in small grain fields stalled due to drought, but the recent rains should help some fields. Oats turned yellow after the cold snap. Some wheat fields were still in good condition but needed rainfall. Pastures were dry and needed good rain before spring green up. Livestock continued to rely on heavy amounts of supplemental feed. Many producers were grazing cattle on wheat. Most cattle looked in fair to good shape. Some producers were repairing frozen pipes from the recent cold snap.

Southwest

A cold front brought moisture, with rain shower totals ranging from 0.5 to 2 inches. Some areas reported flowing rivers. Warmer temperatures over the weekend should help pastures green up. Further freeze damage was being observed in rangeland and some small fruit trees. Overall, range and pasture conditions remained dry. Cool-season forages were baled, and cool-season range plants were showing late winter to early spring growth. However, little forage growth had occurred due to cool weather conditions. Winter wheat emerged and was in good condition. Livestock markets remained steady to high. Some gardeners began preparing for spring planting. Producers continued to reduce livestock numbers. Lambing and kidding were underway. Livestock were receiving supplemental feed and were in mostly fair to good condition. Warmer temperatures were expected next week.

South

Temperatures were as low as 38 degrees at night with daytime highs in the 70s. No measurable rainfall was reported, though some areas reported fog and morning dew. Topsoil moisture conditions were still poor in most areas with some reports of adequate conditions. Most parts of the district needed additional rain to prepare for the upcoming planting season. Farmers and row crop producers prepared fields to plant corn and sorghum in hopes of taking advantage of adequate soil moisture. Planting should pick up over the next few weeks, with a few farmers planting corn already. Citrus producers continued to harvest and evaluate potential damage to fruit and trees after the recent freeze. Oat fields continued to progress and were in excellent condition. Onions and other vegetables looked good and recovered from the freeze while leafy greens showed signs of freeze damage. The local water irrigation canals remained closed with no available water for the local agriculture due to water scarcity in the Rio Grande River. Range and pastures continued to suffer due to the recent freeze with most pastures displaying burnt tops. Standing forage was dry and was posing a fire danger. Conditions were very tough on livestock and wildlife with the wet and cool weather and poor range and pasture conditions. Producers continued to supplement livestock diets with hay and protein, and some producers were hauling water. Some cattle producers burned prickly pear for their cattle. Hay was in high demand, resulting in price increases. Feed costs were also high at local stores. One local beef cattle market reported above-average sale volumes after the winter storm prevented the previous week’s sale. Feeder calf prices continued to climb and were at an all-time high. Prices on cull cows and bulls were strong as well.