Texas A & M Predicts Chicken Hatchability Decline

New Poultry Study Warns Hatchability Could Fall to 60 Percent by 2050

A recent study by Texas A&M University highlights a growing issue in the U.S. poultry industry — falling fertility rates in broiler breeder eggs. If the current trend continues, hatchability could drop from 75% to 60% by 2050.

The research was conducted by graduate students Cara Cash and Kolton Witherspoon and published in Poultry Science. It uses a decade of USDA data (2013–2022) to identify declines in hatchability, chick survival, and farm efficiency.

Dr. Giri Athrey, associate professor of poultry science and co-author of the study, said, “This study is the first to paint a clear picture of the problem and forecast future declines.”

The findings are especially concerning given that U.S. chicken meat production has steadily risen, increasing from 18.85 to 23.15 million tons over the past ten years. Americans now eat nearly 101 pounds of chicken per person each year.

To monitor fertility trends, researchers created the Broiler Breeder Performance Index, which includes hatchability and other indicators. They also looked into possible causes like breeding methods and poultry management.

As fertility drops, producers have increased egg production, which may raise costs throughout the poultry supply chain and ultimately affect consumer prices.

The study stresses the need for more research and innovation in poultry science to support sustainable meat production. Solutions could include genetic improvement, better farm practices, and tailored support for breeders.

This research acts as a warning and a call to action for the industry to invest in long-term reproductive performance and food security.