Top 5 Market Movers for the Week of April 14, 2025

Important Market Reports and Weather Forecasts to Shape Agricultural Trends

By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern

Key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets this week. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks..

1. The monthly NOPA Crush Report is scheduled for release on April 15th. The previous report showed that U.S. soybean processors crushed 178.870 million bushels in February, representing a 11% decrease from January’s. This decrease was thought to be attributed to weather conditions and weaker soymeal demand. Although specific expectations for this upcoming report have not been publicly detailed, it has historically been shown that U.S. soybean crush tends to experience a seasonal slowdown in April due to routine maintenance at processing plants, with the exact figures will depend on current industry conditions.

2. The second Crop Progress Report of the year is to be released on April 14th. This week’s report showed some significant changes in U.S. winter wheat conditions, with South Dakota (-42%), Oklahoma (-26%), and Nebraska (-31%) showing the largest declines in G-E ratings, with many commodities underway with planting, with 48% being G-E nationally, a decline from last year’s 56%. Additionally, Iowa’s topsoil moisture was most adequate. Next week’s report will show the continuation of planting for spring wheat, barley, oats, sugar beets, rice, sorghum, cotton and corn with winter wheat conditions expected to show some slight improvements with some localized dryness and regional variations possibly influencing development across states.

3. On April 16, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its next rate decision. In March, the central bank lowered its lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its second-rate reduction this year. It is expected that the central bank is expected to cut interest rates again with a market probability of 66%. A growing Canadian economy can absorb and provide a cushion against U.S. tariffs.

4. On April 17, the USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report is set to be released. Last month, total cattle on feed were at 11.6 million head, down 2% the year before. Additionally, placements were at 1.55 million, 18% lower, and marketings at 1.63%, 9% lower. Although specific projections are not available, looking at recent trends, cattle inventories may continue to contract. As of January 1, 2025, the U.S. cattle herd was estimated at 86.7 million, the lowest level since 1951, with drought conditions and rising feed costs being the main contributors.

5.Keep an eye of the moisture for next week as it does not look like an early planting season for any regions in North America (although Western Canada is drier and warming up) as it remains too cold into next week In Ontario and the U.S. eastern Corn belt with below average rain and a big relief for the flooded U.S. South, but more moisture is expected into the second week of the outlook (3rd week of April). The 2025 planting season looks average at best for now and less than ideal for most. The U.S. western Corn belt will be drier and provide a wider window for planting.

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