With the 2021 harvest now virtually complete, the Saskatchewan government has raised most – but not all - of its yield estimates from last month.
The latest weekly crop report on Thursday pegged the average canola yield in the province at 21 bu/acre, up slightly from the province’s early September estimate of 20 bu and near the Sept. 14 Statistics Canada forecast of 21.2 bu. At 30 bu/acre, the average expected Saskatchewan spring wheat yield was bumped up 3 bu from last month, also near the StatsCan estimate of 30.3 bu. The average durum yield was unchanged from last month at 19 bu/acre, still well below the StatsCan forecast of 24.4 bu.
Provincial oat and barley yields are now pegged at 49 and 34 bu/acre, respectively, compared to 55 and 38 bu in September and the StatsCan estimates of 58.2 and 35.1 bu/acre. At 15 bu/acre, the average flax yield was steady from September and above the StatsCan projection of 13.9 bu, while the average soybean yield was revised up 2 bu from last month to 27 bu/acre, versus the StatsCan estimate of 19.3 bu.
The average dry pea yield was raised 1 bu from September to 22 bu/acre, down from StatsCan’s projection of 23.5 bu, while the average lentil yield, at 870 lbs/acre, is up from 817 lbs last month but still well below StatsCan’s 962 lbs.
Mustard and canary yields, at 431 and 773 lbs/acre, are up from 414 and 723 lbs in September but down from the StatsCan forecasts of 551 and 814 lbs. The average chickpea yield is now seen by the province at 741 lbs/acre, compared to 797 lbs last month and 811 lbs for StatsCan.
“Crop yields varied throughout the province, depending heavily on the amount of moisture received throughout the season,” today’s report said. “Overall provincial yields are well below average, even areas that received timely rains reported below average yields. Yields were impacted by the extreme drought, heat stress, wind, hail and grasshoppers.”
However, most crops were reported to be within the top two quality grades, as weather was favourable throughout the fall, allowing producers to harvest without major delays from rain or waiting for crops to mature.
Moisture conditions remain a concern, with much of the province receiving minimal or below average rainfall this year along with hot temperatures and drying winds throughout the growing season. All regions in the province reported that their topsoil moisture was short or very short for most of the season. Significant precipitation is needed this fall and winter to replenish moisture levels in the soil and dugouts. Heading into winter, topsoil moisture on cropland is rated as 12% adequate, 43% short and 45% very short.
With drier than normal field conditions this fall, the number of acres seeded to winter cereals is below normal. In most areas, winter wheat acres are estimated to fall 17%, while fall rye is estimated to fall 12%. With harvest wrapping up in most regions, there was adequate time for seeding but there were concerns with poor germination and establishment of winter cereals prior to winter due to the extremely low topsoil moisture conditions, the report said.
Southeast:
Harvest is completely wrapped up in the region and producers continue to do fall work as weather conditions allow. Fall weed control and fertilizer applications have slowed down due to the extremely dry soil conditions in some parts of the region. Producers are trying to limit the amount of soil they disturb in order to conserve what little soil moisture they have.
Crop yields varied greatly within the region depending on how much moisture was received throughout the growing season. The region also saw a large yield impact from heat stress, wind, hail and grasshoppers this summer. Yields in this region are slightly higher than other regions due to some decent, timely rains throughout much of the season. Crop quality in the region was good overall, with the majority of crops falling within the top two grades due to limited fall moisture during harvest and limited disease issues.
Moisture conditions continue to remain a major concern. Even with several precipitation events during the growing season, the constant strong winds and the extreme heat in July left the topsoil moisture conditions very depleted in most of the region. Farmland will need significant amounts of moisture before next spring to replenish topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions for the next growing season. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 21 per cent adequate, 54 per cent short and 25 per cent very short.
At this time, most livestock producers have indicated that they will most likely have adequate hay, straw, greenfeed and feed grain heading into winter, although producers in drier areas have reported that many will not have adequate winter feed supplies and shortages will be likely. Some producers have reduced the size of their herds in order to stretch their feed supplies longer throughout the winter. Along with affecting hay and feed yields, the dry conditions this year have resulted in shortages or potential shortages of water supplies for livestock as well. Producers have had to haul water to their cattle all season long due to quantity and quality issues; going into winter there are concerns about sourcing water for livestock.
Crop reporters have indicated that acres seeded to winter wheat and fall rye are below average this fall due to drier than normal field conditions; acreage is estimated to fall somewhere between 20 to 25 per cent. There were concerns that crops would not germinate and establish properly for winter due to the severely dry conditions.
Southwest:
With harvest mostly wrapped up in the region for the past few weeks, producers have continued to do other fall work as weather conditions allow. Very little herbicide spraying or fertilizer applications are occurring due to very dry moisture conditions in much of the region. The region experienced very little precipitation for the third year in a row and without a significant rainfall to replenish the soil for the 2022 growing season many producers predict it will be an even worse year.
Extended dry and hot conditions negatively impacted crop production in many areas of the region; some crops never produced seed and were cut for green feed or were so short they were unable to be cut and baled. Crop yields vary in the region depending on how much moisture, which was very little, was received throughout the growing season.
In general, crop yields were well below average across most of the region as there were major yield impacts due to the extreme heat, severe dry conditions and constant wind this summer. Crop quality in the region was good mainly due to dry harvesting weather conditions. The majority of crops are falling within the top two grades thanks to limited fall moisture during harvest and limited disease issues.
Moisture conditions have been a major concern for the entire growing season and continue to remain a concern for the region heading into winter. The southwest has received below or well below average precipitation, along with strong winds and hot temperatures during the majority of the growing season.
Much of the region has been short or very short of topsoil moisture throughout the growing season and the farm land along with dugouts and sloughs is in severe need of water. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 12 per cent adequate, 25 per cent short and 63 per cent very short.
At this time, most livestock producers have indicated that they will have inadequate to adequate hay, straw, greenfeed and feed grain heading into winter. Producers who have little for winter feed supplies have very few options and will likely be forced to reduce their herd size in order to stretch their feed through the winter.
East-Central:
Harvest has wrapped up early in the region allowing producers to complete some fall work as weather conditions allow. Fall weed control and fertilizer applications have been limited for some due to dry soil conditions and recent rising costs for crop input and pest control products.
Crop yields vary in the region, with most of the yields reported to be below average with some producers yielding half of what they normally do. Yields varied depending on the amount of moisture received throughout the growing season and the severe dry conditions and hot temperatures resulted in a reduction in yields. Lack of fall moisture allowed for early harvest completion as well as good crop quality in the region with the majority of crops falling within the top two grades.
While dry harvest conditions this fall favoured harvest progress, producers have concerns about lack of topsoil and subsoil moisture. The dry field conditions affected crop, hay and pasture production in the region and there are several reports of dry dugouts, sloughs and creeks leaving many producers worried for next year. Livestock producers are starting to have trouble sourcing water for their cattle.
Producers are in need of high amounts of precipitation to improve soil moisture conditions as well as replenish critical water sources that have dried out due to lack of rainfall this year. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 11 per cent adequate, 49 per cent short and 40 per cent very short.
Crop reporters have indicated that the acres seeded to winter cereals are below average this year due to the dry fall field conditions in the region and concerns with poor germination and establishment caused but the extreme lack of moisture in much of the region.
West-Central:
Producers continue to do fall field work in the region; very little fall weed control and fertilizer applications have also been carried out due to dry soil conditions. Producers are working up low areas, soil sampling, hauling grain and taking stock of their crop input needs for next year. Livestock producers are still sourcing feed since there was a very poor hay crop in much of the region; some were lucky enough to bale what little straw there was from their grain farming neighbours but overall it was not enough to maintain current herd sizes.
Crop yields in the region varied significantly depending on the amount of rainfall and heat stress received during the latter half of the season, but overall, they were estimated to be well below average. Heat blasting that occurred in July severely affected canola and some pulse crops resulting in greatly reduced yields for some producers. The majority of crops are falling within the top two grades due to limited fall moisture during harvest and limited disease issues.
Producers are hoping for soil moisture levels to replenish in the region; with limited rainfall for most of the season the region is reported to have the lowest rating of topsoil moisture in the province. Dry conditions resulted in fire risks and reduction of dugout and slough water levels. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as two per cent adequate, 34 per cent short and 64 per cent very short.
At this time, most livestock producers have indicated that they will have inadequate hay, straw, greenfeed and feed grain heading into winter with many producers unsure how they will stretch their feed supplies without reducing their herd sizes.
The number of acres seeded to winter cereals this year was below average due to dry field conditions this fall. Much of the region had adequate time post-harvest for seeding but there were concerns that the crops would not germinate and establish in time for winter.
Northeast:
Harvest is wrapped up for most producers in the region; some producers have been challenged with regrowth in canola but they have been working hard to finish the last of their fields. Those who have finished have already completed some of their fall activities such as harrowing and fall weed control. It was reported that dry conditions this fall limited some producers from applying anhydrous ammonia and some herbicides.
Crop yields varied throughout the region, with yields being below average overall for most crops. There were losses reported in different areas caused by hailstorms, lack of moisture and heat stress. Most crops in the region are falling within the top two grades due to limited fall moisture during harvest and limited disease issues. While the earlier harvested crops need to by dried for many producers, the later harvested crops were coming off drier.
Typically, the region begins its growing season with adequate and in some cases too much moisture; this was not the case for this year a lack of rain, minimal winter snowfall and strong winds resulted in dry field conditions in the spring. Conditions did not improve very much through the season with well below normal rainfall and extreme heat and drying winds causing the soil moisture to constantly decline. Producers are hoping for either fall rain or a high snow melt in the spring to improve moisture conditions for next spring. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 14 per cent adequate, 61 per cent short and 25 per cent very short.
The number of acres seeded to winter cereals is well below average for the region with some areas seeing a 20 to 30 per cent decrease due to the dire topsoil moisture conditions in much of the region.
Northwest:
Now that harvest is complete for most producers in the region, they have continued to do post-harvest field work as weather conditions allow. Producers in the region hope for several large fall rains and a big dump of snow in the winter to help combat the effects of the drought.
Crop yields varied within the region, but most crops were slightly below average. There was some yield loss caused by hail, premature ripening, strong winds heat blasting and drought. Overall, crop quality was good in the region due to limited fall moisture during harvest; there was some minor downgrading due to bleaching or staining in some wheat crops. The majority of crops are falling within the top two grades due to limited fall moisture during harvest and limited disease issues.
For most of the season, the northwest region starts the spring with adequate or surplus amounts of moisture depending on the amount of rainfall received throughout the year. The northwest region did not see average rainfall and many parts of the region had become very dry before seeding had even concluded. Within the latter part of the season moisture conditions have declined due to limited rainfall and much of the region is reporting as short or very short for topsoil moisture. Heading into winter, cropland topsoil moisture is rated as six per cent adequate, 47 per cent short and 47 per cent very short.
Crop reporters have indicated that the number of acres seeded to winter wheat and fall rye is estimated to have declined to below average for the region.
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