India Situation Update
This is the time of year that we look more closely at the situation with Indian pulse crops, as the rabi season is when Indian farmers plant chickpeas, lentils and peas, the crops we’re more concerned about in Canada. Normally, the focus is on acreage and crop prospects. While those are still important, the added layer of government policy has become a key feature in the outlook. But let’s start with crop production.
This year, Indian farmers started the planting season on a strong note, with pulse acreage running ahead of average. There are some questions about the Indian reports, but they show very small gains later in the season, with total pulse acreage currently 11% less than last year and 12% below the 5-year average. According to these reports, Indian farmers have planted 24.4 mln acres of chickpeas (6% less than last year), 4.3 mln acres of lentils (down 11%) and 2.2 mln acres of peas (12% less).
Of course, acreage is only one part of the production equation. Across much of India, satellite vegetation maps show crop conditions are better than average, with the early harvest scheduled to begin in a few weeks. Keep in mind, conditions were very positive last year; comparing the vegetation maps against last year shows key growing areas in north-central India this year in worse shape. These two comparisons suggest 2025 yield potential could be better than average but less than the 2024 harvest.