Organic soybean prices remained strong into November, even as the end of harvest nears. As of Nov. 14, Mercaris estimated U.S. organic soybean harvest at 88% complete, putting it on pace to be nearly complete by early December. With harvest steadily progressing, yields continue to look positive, suggesting that Mercaris pre-harvest estimate of 37.5 bushels per-acre may need to be revised higher.
Despite the prospect of an excellent U.S. harvest, the market appears supported by a persistently tight outlook for U.S. organic soy imports. Over the first two months of the current market year, U.S. organic soybean imports only reached 22,900 MT according to Mercaris estimates, down 60% year-over-year. Likewise, maritime imports of organic soybean meal reached 62,300 MT according to Mercaris estimates, down 68% y/y.
Adding to the bullish support currently offered by imports, October brought two developments that could lead long-term price support. First, on Oct. 20 India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) issued a decision barring four organic certifying agencies (CU Inspections India Pvt Ltd, ECOCERT India Pvt Ltd, Indian Organic Certification Agency, Aditi Organic Certifications Pvt Ltd) from registering any new processors or exporters of organic products.
Furthermore, APEDA issued a year-long suspension for OneCert International, effectively prohibiting the organization’s ability to provide organic certification altogether. This announcement will likely impede the re-certification efforts many Indian operations are pursuing following the National Organic Program’s (NOP) January decision to end its recognition agreement with India, making it difficult to achieve recertification by the July 12, 2022 deadline set by the NOP.