U.S. Hog Report Shows Rising Supply Pressure

Breeding Stock Falls as Litter Size Reaches Record Levels

USDA’s latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released June 26, 2025, reveals a 1% increase in total hog inventory compared to March. At 75.1 million, this is the highest June figure since 2020. However, pigs kept for breeding dropped to 5.98 million—the lowest in ten years.

USDA estimates pigs saved per litter at 11.7, a record high for the second quarter. This shows productivity gains even as the breeding herd shrinks. Slaughter data from May confirms these trends, with 10.4 million hogs processed and over 2.2 billion pounds of pork produced—a 3% year-over-year rise.

Domestic pork disappearance remains stable over the decades. Although U.S. consumers are eating slightly more pork per person than in the past, demand growth is limited. Still, pork is gaining appeal as a cheaper alternative to beef.

U.S. pork exports added significant value in 2024, with $66.53 per head attributed to foreign sales. But in 2025, exports are projected to drop by 2.3%, due to trade concerns and global competition. Top markets remain Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and China.

Prices increased in June, with carcass prices 21% higher than the previous year. Hot weather may reduce hog weight gain, potentially tightening supply and stabilizing prices.

“Pork remains a more affordable protein compared to beef, and continued consumer interest, both domestically and abroad, could provide some demand-side support.”

Despite the bearish tone of the report, some seasonal price resilience and long-term market adjustments could improve conditions for hog producers in the second half of 2025.