Market Outlook

2022/23 U.S. Soybean Exports Decline on Lower Production

This month, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published Crop Production—2022 Summary, which reduced the 2022 U.S. soybean production estimate by 69 million bushels to 4.28 billion bushels. The national average soybean yield decreased by 0.6 bushels to 49.5 bushels per acre. Despite higher U.S. soybean sales commitments relative to this time last year, the U.S. soybean export for 2022/23 marketing year is reduced this month by 55 million bushels to 1.99 billion bushels to reflect the lower supply, reduced imports for China, and higher exports from Brazil. With lower supply, unchanged crush, and lower exports, the forecast for 2022/23 ending stocks was lowered by 10 million bushels this month to 210 million bushels.

Global soybean production for 2022/23 is estimated to decrease by 3.2 million metric tons this month—to 388 million metric tons—as reductions for Argentina’s, the United States’, and Uruguay’s soybean production are partially offset by higher production in Brazil and China. Exceptionally dry weather in major soybean producing provinces in Argentina is expected to impact soybean area and yield. The country’s 2022/23 crop was reduced by 4 million metric tons this month to 45.5 million metric tons. In Brazil, Government surveys indicate an increase of 0.5 million hectares from the previous estimate to 43.4 million hectares, which helped raise the production estimate to 153 million metric tons from 152 million metric tons last month.