USDA reports provide clues on hog market currentness

Jul 14, 2025

Currentness in hog markets reflects whether hogs that should be coming to market at a given time actually are. It measures the degree to which producers are either ahead, behind or right on pace of their normal marketing schedules.

Marketings ahead of schedule may indicate packers need hogs and may be willing to bid up to get them. Lagging marketings may mean hogs are backing up. If hogs backing up is due to packer difficulty in moving product, backed up hogs pack on pounds, which makes an already oversupply situation worse.

Weights of both producer-owned hogs and packer-owned hogs suggest hogs are not currently backing up. In the case of packer-owned hogs, one could argue packers are ultra current. Limited open market availability and the price of hogs are encouraging packers to schedule their own hogs earlier. If hog numbers are tight and packers need additional pork pounds to fill orders for their customers, pulling on their own hog supplies is one way to get those pounds.

The above is the over simplified version. In reality, a constant interplay of incentives drives the flow of market ready, or near market ready, hogs to market. Incentives for producers to sell may be available profits, lack of feeding space, fear of what tomorrow might bring or a host of other factors. If a contract exists between a producer and packer, the contract may have quantity and timing requirements to make delivery. Incentives for packers to buy may be existing contracts to take delivery, attractive margins or simply the need to have product available for their customers. Being a dependable supplier is key in any business. Packers that own hogs have access to a known source of hogs from which to pull on if supplies are tight and/or margins are good. Obviously, both producers and packers would like to be driven by profits but that is not always possible.

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