The drought monitor for Nebraska from September 22 shows 100 percent of the state is either abnormally dry or under some form of drought. In fact, 73 percent of the state is under a severe, extreme, or exceptional drought (Figure 1). No doubt the drought will affect this year’s crop production with the impacts becoming better understood over the next few weeks as producers ramp up harvest. A week ago, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated 6 percent of the state’s corn crop and 5 percent of the soybean crop were harvested.

USDA projections peg the average corn yield for Nebraska this year at 176 bushels per acre, 18 bushels (9 percent) less than last year’s average. The ProFarmer tour in August estimated an average corn yield of 164 bushels per acre, 30 bushels below last year. Other private sources estimate an average yield ranging between 176–179 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the USDA estimates an average yield of 52 bushels/acre, 11 bushels (17 percent) less than last year. And the ProFarmer tour estimated an average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre.
The impacts of this year’s drought can be measured against “what might have been.” In other words, what might have yields been if the state had experienced a typical growing season (if such a thing exists?). Estimated trend yields for corn and soybeans this year based on past yields are 189 bushels per acre and 59 bushels respectively.