By Andrew Muhammad and Md Deluair Hossen
After numerous rounds of reciprocal tariff hikes, the tariffs between the U.S. and China have escalated to 145% and 125%, respectively. This raises a critical question: Can U.S. agricultural exports to China withstand such steep retaliatory tariffs? To delve deeper into this issue, let’s examine the impact of prohibitively high tariffs on U.S. beef exports, a significant component of U.S. agricultural trade with China.
As noted in a previous article, China has emerged as a major player in global beef trade. Although once a minor importer, China is now the largest beef importing country in the world. In 2010, Chinese beef imports were only $84 million, but by 2022, they increased by 21,000% to nearly $18 billion (See SAT: https://southernagtoday.org/2022/12/01/china-emerges-as-a-leading-destination-for-u-s-beef-exports/). This remarkable rise can be attributed to several factors, including economic growth, urbanization, and changing preferences for quality protein sources. The increase in imports was further accelerated by the outbreak of African Swine Fever in 2018, which decimated pork supplies and led to a significant shift towards beef. Due to rising demand and imports, coupled with lifting the import restriction on U.S. beef in 2017, China is now the third largest foreign market for U.S. beef behind South Korea and Japan (USDA, 2025).
Since 2017, the U.S. has significantly increased its beef exports to China. In 2018, U.S. beef exports were valued at around $64 million, but by 2024, increased to approximately $1.5 billion (See Figure 1). As the figure shows, Brazil is the leading exporter of beef to China, reaching approximately $6.2 billion in 2024 (45% of total Chinese imports). Other noted suppliers include