Bullish wheat market ahead

Aug 18, 2022

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Harvest activities are just getting underway across the prairies.

Grain Market Analyst Brennan Turner says he's not a big fan of selling direct off the combine unless you have to as prices are generally lower.

He says when it comes to the harvest the first few fields are usually pretty good, adding that some farmers have been pleasantly surprised by what the yield monitors are showing.

The first estimates from Stats Can are expected in a couple of weeks.

Meantime, when it comes to the wheat market there are a number of factors at play. 

"To start with, the August WASDE report  saw a lot of pretty big changes to the wheat balance sheet raising wheat production numbers in Canada and Australia. In Australia, wheat production estimates moved up about 3 million tonnes to more than 30 million tonnes of wheat, while Russia's wheat production was also raised by about 6.5 million tonnes. But on the flip side, you know, some bullish variables that I continue to watch is the heat and dryness in Europe.

Overall, Turner thinks it's a net positive report for wheat, as things just seem to be a lot more bullish.

"The flip side here is that we're about 30% off the highs that we saw in mid May. That's a function of just understanding what the size of this year's crop is going to be again. I mentioned a couple of those big harvests in Russia, Canada, and Australia, but those harvest supplies coming to market had buyers feeling pretty comfortable about getting their needs met.

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