Top 5 Key Market Movers to Watch the Week of July 2, 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 2, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. On Monday July 3rd, the weekly USDA crop progress report will be released as per the usual schedule. Crop conditions have declined 5 weeks in a row, and with current U.S. temperatures reaching 120 degrees Fahrenheit in many U.S. southern regions hotter than the Sarah Dessert, conditions are set to worsen for a 6th straight week. U.S. corn crop conditions stand at just 50% good-excellent and soybeans are at 51% both the worst since 1988! Look for a 6th consecutive week of decline in crop conditions as rains forecast this week and into the weekend have been so far disappointing.

2. To add to the list of reports that will be released next week, the USDA grains inspected for export report will be released on Monday July 3rd, EIA ethanol data on Thursday July 6th, and USDA weekly export sales on Friday, July 7th. The recent grains inspected for export report showed no signs of closing the gap from this and last years totals. Corn totaled 0.542 mmt, which is down from 0.831 mmt last week and 1.246 mmt at this time last year. A 56% decrease from last year!

3. The latest U.S drought monitor showed that 70% of the U.S. corn crop and 63% of soybeans across the U.S. are covered in drought up 6% for both vs. a week ago. Despite the rains last weekend, the drought continued to spread in Illinois with severe drought at 59% up 28 points. As I mentioned above, areas in the U.S. are reaching 120 degrees! which won’t help the drought situation in the slightest. Any light rains in the forecast will be almost irrelevant with temperatures this high. which won’t help the drought situation in the slightest. The drought monitor map will be updated on Thursday, July 6th. Expect to see increased areas affected by the more extreme drought levels.

4. Monday, July 3rd, will also see an early close for the grain markets to celebrate Independence Day on Tuesday, July 4. Markets will close at 1:00 p.m. ET on July 3rd, and will remain closed for Tuesday July 4th and reopen on Wednesday July 5th, 2023. The U.S. weather outlook on Sunday night July 2nd, 2023 and again on Tuesday night on July 4th, 2023 will be all important for markets when they reopen on July 5th, 2023.

5. The July 2 to 6, U.S. precipitation forecast shows an above normal amount of rain throughout the U.S. Midwest during the start of the critical U.S. corn reproductive stage. Funds have already baked in this news with a lower week, but we are not back to trendline yields. These rains will be crucial for subsoil moisture levels as many states are worse than 2012! Illinois now stands at 86% short-very short, Iowa at 68%, and Indiana not far behind at 65% short-very short.

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