Mustard seed supply prices forecast to fall significantly
For the 2024-2025 crop year, Canada’s mustard seed supply is estimated at 290 thousand tonnes (Kt), marking a significant 28% increase from the previous year. Despite the increase in supply, exports are forecast to remain stable at 95 Kt, similar to the previous year.
The U.S. and the European Union remain the dominant markets for Canadian mustard seed, accounting for the bulk of exports. However, the large domestic supply is expected to exert downward pressure on prices. As a result, prices are forecast to fall significantly, a trend not seen since 2006-2007.
Carry-out stocks, or the amount of mustard seed left at the end of the crop year, are expected to nearly double, reaching 150 Kt. This increase in carry-out stocks is largely attributed to the growing supply and the stable export demand.
Looking ahead to 2025-2026, Canadian mustard seed production is projected to decrease significantly. The seeded area is expected to fall by 52% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower prices from 2024-2025, making mustard seed less competitive compared to other crops. Saskatchewan and Alberta will account for 73% and 26% of the seeded area, respectively. Production is forecast to drop sharply to 85 Kt.