Wheat Stocks Tighten on Heavier Export Demand

Projected 2024-25 Canadian wheat ending stocks have been lowered from last month amid expected higher export demand. 

Agriculture Canada’s latest monthly supply-demand estimates on Tuesday pegged Canada all wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year at 4.6 million tonnes, down 300,000 from last month and now slightly below the previous year’s 4.615 million. 

The tighter stocks are entirely due to a higher all wheat export forecast, which now stands at 25.7 million, up from 25.4 million in October and 25.334 million in 2023-24.  

Durum exports were bumped 100,000 tonnes higher from last month to 4.9 million, with projected ending stocks falling a corresponding 100,000 tonnes to 800,000 – still up sharply from 407,000 and 574,000 tonnes the previous two years. 

Estimated wheat (excl durum) exports were raised 200,000 tonnes from last month to 20.8 million, while ending stocks declined an identical amount to 3.8 million, versus 4.208 million a year earlier. 

In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said durum exports continue to move “swiftly through the licensed elevator system.” According to the Canadian Grain Commission, durum exports have outpaced last year’s shipments by 39% on 

average since the beginning of the crop year, it added. 

All wheat (excl durum) shipments were revised up this month based the pace of 

exports to date, Ag Canada said. 

Ag Canada’s season average durum price forecast of $325/tonne is unchanged from October but down $100 from 2023-24. The all wheat (excl durum) price forecast was trimmed $20 from last month to $310/tonne, little changed from $316 a year earlier.