Click here for the Full Coverage
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
Report Highlights
USDA has lowered its ending stocks projections for soybeans and corn.
2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from November on an increased export outlook, for a larger decrease than what the trade was expecting.
Corn ending stocks were expected to be up on the month, but USDA raised its estimate for food, seed, & industrial use, cutting corn 10 million bushels to 1.998 billion. Before the report, the trade was expecting corn to be up around 10 million bushels.
Wheat ending stocks were increased 10 million bushels to 654 million, in-line with analysts’ estimates.
USDA’s final 2014 production totals for corn and soybeans are out January 12.
2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 654 million bushels, compared to 644 million in November and 590 million bushels for 2013/14. UDSA raised imports by 10 million bushels, putting total supply at 2.795 billion. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $5.80 to $6.20 per bushel, compared to $5.65 to $6.15 last month and $6.87 last marketing year.
2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.998 billion bushels, compared to 2.008 billion a month ago and 1.236 billion a year ago. The food, seed, & industrial use projection was increased 10 million bushels to 6.545 billion bushels, taking domestic use to 11.920 billion and total use to 13.670 billion. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.80, unchanged on the month and down from the 2013/14 average of $4.46.
2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 410 million bushels, compared to 450 million last month and 92 million at the end of the previous marketing year. USDA hiked exports by 40 million bushels to 1.760 billion, pushing total use to 3.655 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price of $9 to $11 per bushel was steady with a month ago and below the $13 average a year ago.
2014/15 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are pegged at 1.455 billion pounds, compared to 1.335 billion in November and 1.165 billion for 2013/14. Production is now projected at 20.680 billion pounds, taking total supply to 22.005 billion. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $.32 to $.36 per pound, compared to last month’s range of $.34 to $.38 and last year’s average of $.3823.
2014/15 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are seen at 300,000 tons, steady with a month ago and up from the 250,000 a year ago. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $340 to $380 per ton, compared to November’s range of $330 to $370 and the 2013/14 average of $489.94.
2014/15 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 194.90 million tons, compared to 194.90 million last month. USDA raised global production to 722.18 million tons, with increased expectations for Canada, Kazakhstan, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed demand is pegged at 139.22 million tons, compared to 139.87 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 158.04 million tons, compared to 154.92 million in November.
2014/15 world corn ending stocks are pegged at 192.20 million tons, compared to 191.50 million a month ago. USDA has production at 991.58 million tons, with a lower outlook for Argentina cancelled out by larger estimates for the European Union, Southeast Asia, and China. Domestic feed demand is seen at 597.12 million tons, compared to 596.69 million in November, and exports are projected at 112.34 million tons, compared to 113.09 million last month.
2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 89.87 million tons, compared to 90.28 million in November. Global production was increased slightly to 312.81 million tons, with a modest raise for Paraguay’s crop. Domestic crush is pegged at 251.87 million tons, compared to 251.92 million last month, and exports are estimated at 116.22 million tons, compared to 115.54 million a month ago.