LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2012 is raised from last month as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production. Although remaining below last year, hatchery data are pointing towards smaller declines in eggs set and heavier bird weights are adding to production. Turkey production is also forecast slightly higher, based on recent production data. Pork production is raised on heavier expected carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 29 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. Beef production is reduced slightly as lower steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets higher dressed weights and higher cow slaughter. Small changes are made to 2013 beef and pork forecasts, largely reflecting higher expected carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged. Offsetting changes are made to 2012 quarterly egg production forecasts but the annual forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are unchanged from last month.
Forecasts for 2012 beef, broiler, and turkey trade are adjusted to reflect first-quarter data. Forecasts for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Pork exports for 2012 are raised from last month on the strength of trade data to date with a slight increase in forecast exports for 2013. The cattle and turkey price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month, but hog and broiler prices are reduced, reflecting larger production. Egg prices for 2012 are raised as recent prices have been stronger than expected. Prices for 2013 are unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2012 is raised as cow numbers are expected to decline more slowly. The production forecast for 2013 is unchanged. Export forecasts are raised for both 2012 and 2013 on expected strength in cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales. Imports on a skimsolids basis are reduced slightly on lower expected imports of several dairy products.
NDM and whey prices for 2012 are forecast lower than last month on higher production and weaker demand. However, the cheese price is raised at the low end of the range on stronger demand and the butter price range is narrowed. The Class III price forecast is lowered from last month as the weaker whey price more than offsets the slightly higher forecast cheese price and the Class IV price is lowered on the weaker NDM price. The all milk price is forecast at $16.85 to $17.25 per cwt for 2011. Price forecasts for 2012 are unchanged from last month. The all milk price for 2013 remains unchanged from last month at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt.
Source: USDA