COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to produce ethanol, reduced feed and residual use and unchanged ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5,450 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which estimated the amount of corn used to produce ethanol to be record high during December-February. The pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data has also been above expectations. Offsetting is a 50 million bushel reduction in projected feed and residual use to 5,500 million bushels based on disappearance indicated during the first half of the marketing year in the March 31 Grain Stocks. With offsetting usage changes, ending stocks are unchanged from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 4.4 million tons higher from last month to 1,346.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for increased production, consumption, trade, and stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised primarily on larger projected second crop area. The latest government data indicate a higher-than-expected expansion of area in both the Center-West and North. Argentina corn production is increased on the latest harvest results indicating better-than-expected yields. Other major corn production changes include increases for Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Africa, with reductions for Paraguay, Ecuador and Russia.
Major global trade changes for 2016/17 this month include higher projected corn exports for Brazil and Argentina, with increased competition from these countries expected to impact the 2017/18 marketing year in the United States. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, with mostly offsetting reductions for Indonesia, Venezuela, Philippines, and Colombia. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, with the biggest increases for Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina.
Source : USDA WASDE