China might start importing corn and wheat

What happens with the wheat market going forward largely depends on China, says an analyst.

Canadian farmers harvested a record 40 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, including 29.3 million tonnes of spring wheat.

The good news is that exports have been surpassing last year’s record pace so far in 2025-26.

Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, thinks exports could hit a record 24 million tonnes, although it is still early days.

The problem with this year’s wheat market is that there was record production by the top seven exporters.

Minneapolis wheat futures have been relatively flat despite the global glut of the commodity, indicating that something is going on with the demand side of the ledger.

Penner said China has not been getting enough attention. There are reports of significant quality losses with China’s corn and spring wheat crops.

China’s farmers just finished harvest, and corn and wheat prices are already starting to rebound, suggesting that domestic supplies are inadequate.

“If China were to start buying corn and wheat again in a bigger way, that changes the global dynamic to quite a large degree,” he told delegates attending the Canaryseed Development Commission of Saskatchewan’s annual general meeting.

Prices are in the sideways phase of the seasonal cycle. That usually lasts until March and then prices strengthen, peaking in May.