In contrast, precious metals moved higher, with gold and silver reaching new highs.
Looking at soybeans, Agostino noted the market spent nearly 18 months trading between roughly $9.50 and $10.80, but $10.80 to $11 is now serving as the new support (given that it was the old ceiling). This is after futures recently breaking below $11 and filling a gap down to about $10.60.
Agostino believes fund liquidation tied to year-end, quarter-end and month-end positioning has driven much of the selling pressure. Seasonally, soybeans often see a modest rally beginning around December 19 and lasting into mid- to late- February.
Fund positioning remains a major factor. At their recent peak, funds held one of their longest soybean positions on record at 229,000 contracts. As of the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, funds were still long, roughly 180,000 contracts, suggesting liquidation may not be complete.
Agostino pointed to uncertainty surrounding a U.S.–China trade agreement as a key reason for funds losing patience. While China has purchased an estimated 47.3% of its projected soybean needs — about 5.7 million metric tons — some estimates suggest total purchases may have already reached 7 to 9 million metric tons, potentially on track to meeting the 12 million metric ton target by year-end.
Domestic soybean crush remains a bright spot, with record-strong weekly crush numbers. However, Agostino cautioned that even a 100-million-bushel increase in crush compared to last year will not fully offset weak export demand.
In energy markets, WTI crude oil January 2026 futures fell to new lows amid a growing global supply glut. Geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela, Russia and China offered brief support, but Agostino expects oversupply to dominate into the first quarter.
Agostino also noted that easing tariffs on Belarus potash imports could help relieve fertilizer market tightness and potentially pressure fertilizer prices lower by spring 2026.
Wheat markets continue to struggle under heavy global supplies, despite U.S. demand being up 23%.
Corn fundamentals showed more optimism, with ethanol production exceeding 1.13 billion gallons and exports running 30% above last year.
In livestock, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, with lower placements and marketings, could give funds confidence to push cattle and feeder cattle prices higher early in 2026.
Agostino closed by warning of potential uncertainty ahead, as U.S. government funding only extends through late January, raising concerns about possible disruptions to key USDA reports early in the new year.
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