USDA Crop Report Shakes Up Grain Markets

January USDA data and trade signals drive volatility across grains and oilseeds

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast by experts Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal the team discussed major market developments during the week of January 12 to 16, 2026. The focus was on the January USDA crop report, shifting demand signals, and important trade headlines.

The January USDA report surprised markets with very bearish data, especially for corn. U.S. corn harvested area reached its highest level since 1933, while yields were reported at a record 186.5 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for corn were also higher than expected. These figures pressured prices sharply early in the week, although modest technical rebounds followed later.

Soybeans and wheat were also affected, though less severely than corn. Soybean prices showed signs of forming a short-term bottom, supported by strength in soy oil. This strength was linked to ongoing discussions around U.S. biofuel blending mandates for 2026. While proposed biodiesel volumes remain higher than previous years, delays in final decisions continue to create uncertainty for near-term demand.

Export demand was another key topic. U.S. corn sales to China reached the previously released target of 12 million metric tons by mid-January. However, markets remain cautious about whether additional purchases will occur before new trade talks which are expected later in the spring.

Canola markets stood out as a positive exception. News of a Canada/China reduction in canola/EV tariffs and trade agreement gave a sharp lift to canola futures. China is expected to reduce canola seed duties, which helped spark short covering and a strong price recovery.

At the same time, drought conditions remain widespread across parts of the United States and Canada, creating longer-term supply concerns.

Overall, the discussion highlighted how record production, policy uncertainty, fund positioning, and weather risks continue to shape volatile agricultural markets early in 2026.

The podcast also reviewed broader market forces. Crude oil weakened as geopolitical risk eased with Iran, while silver and gold surged as investors sought safe haven assets.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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