Two Big Cattle Reports This Month

 By David Anderson

USDA is set to release the January Cattle on Feed and the much-anticipated Cattle inventory report later this month.  This SAT takes a brief look at expectations for each report, key points to look for when they are released, and some market implications of each.

Cattle on Feed

The Cattle on Feed report is set to be released on Friday, January 23^rd.  There was one more slaughter day during the month of December, based on when the weekends and holidays fell.  That extra day shows up in pre-report estimates of increased marketings for the month.  December marketings are expected to be about 2 percent higher than December 2024.  Daily average marketings should have lagged behind last year, which is to be expected with fewer cattle on feed.

Placements of feeders into feedlots are expected to be below a year ago, with pre-report estimates down around 5 percent.  December placements versus a year ago reflect the border closure to cattle imports from Mexico, with no cattle imported in December 2024 and 2025.  This is the first full month of comparison with no imports for a month in either year.  Large declines in placements during 2025 included the impact of no Mexican feeder cattle so in coming months year-over-year placements will indicate changes in domestic feeder cattle placements.

The combination of larger marketings and smaller placements results in the total number of cattle on feed expected to be down more than 2 percent on January 1, compared to January 1, 2025.  This report will include an estimate of the number of heifers on feed.  This may be the most anticipated number in the report as evidence of any heifer retention for herd growth.