US Wheat Ending Stocks Down; Global Stocks Rise

The USDA trimmed 2024-25 US wheat ending stocks - but raised global stocks - in updated monthly supply-demand estimates on Tuesday. 

Amid a higher export forecast, projected US wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year were lowered 20 million bu from last month to 795 million, still well above 696 million the previous year. Meanwhile, global stocks were bumped 300,000 tonnes higher from November to 257.9 million, still the lowest since 2015-16.  

The fall in the US ending stocks estimate was steeper than expected by traders and analysts, but the increase in global stocks was slightly bigger than anticipated. Wheat futures were trading 2-6 cents higher across all three exchanges this afternoon. 

On the US side, the USDA raised its wheat import forecast by 5 million bu from last month to 125 million, reflecting larger inflows of Hard Red Spring. However, that additional supply was more than offset by a 25-million bu increase in the 2024-25 all wheat export forecast to 850 million, well above 707 million and 762 million the previous two years. 

Specifically, the USDA raised White Wheat exports 15 million bu from last month to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring were both raised 5 million bu. 

Globally, the USDA cut its 2024-25 world wheat production forecast by about 1.7 million tonnes from last month to 792.95 million, mainly due to a smaller EU crop. That crop was dropped 1.3 million tonnes from last month to 121.3 million – versus 135.1 million a year earlier – based on harvest data showing lower production for several member states.  

Russia wheat production for 2024-25 was left steady from November at 81.5 million tonnes, but the country’s projected exports were cut 1 million tonnes to 47 million, “as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year.” 

Ukraine production was also unchanged from last month, holding at 22.9 million tonnes, but projected exports were raised 500,000 tonnes to 16.5 million. 

Imports for China were lowered 500,000 tonnes from last month to 11 million. 

The projected US season-average farm price is unchanged this month at $5.60/bu, down from $6.96 in 2023-24.