UK Economists Point To Livestock Strength, Row Crop Strain In 2026

By Jennifer Elwell 

Strong cattle, poultry and horse sales dominated for much of 2025, leading economists to predict Kentucky agricultural sales will be $8.3 billion for the year despite lower grain prices burdened by supply outpacing demand.

Will Snell, Ph.D., extension economist at the University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, said that while final 2024 agricultural cash receipts - reported at $7.9 billion by the Economic Research Service in September - were slightly lower than the previous year, 2025 receipts offer hope for recovery and may rival the record high cash receipts in 2022.

“A challenging trade environment coupled with abundant global supplies had an adverse effect on grain prices, but livestock prices left Kentucky in a much better position,” Snell said. “For many years, the market share of livestock and crop sales was similar, but the spread widened this past year considerably, with livestock accounting for 65% of projected sales in 2025.”

Snell reported that the real story, however, is the variability of net farm income.

“While we expect a rebound in Kentucky net farm income, from $2.4 billion in 2024 to around $3 billion in 2025, this is largely due to an increase in government payments and crop insurance proceeds, not market strength on the crop side,” Snell said. “Obviously, this will vary considerably from farm to farm and region to region in the state. Despite the influx of government payments, a continued price-cost squeeze will cause many of our grain farmers to face serious financial stress heading into 2026.”