U.S. corn pressuring barley price

A massive U.S. corn crop is pressuring Canadian feed barley prices.

Farmers south of the 49th parallel are projected to harvest a record 425.26 million tonnes of the cereal grain, which would be 35.6 million tonnes larger than the previous record of 389.67 million tonnes set in 2023-24.

The USDA’s latest production estimate temporarily pushed December corn futures below US$4 per bushel.

That bloated U.S. corn crop is pressuring feed barley prices in Western Canada, which are down about 20 per cent from their summer highs.

“With the massive amount of corn that is available to come up north, it definitely keeps a cap on all the other commodities,” said Lukas Biensch, senior manager of commercial grain with Johnston’s Grain.

The United States is forecast to export a record 73 million tonnes of corn, and some of that will be headed to Canada.

The U.S. typically ships about 1.5 to two million tonnes of corn to Canada, but some years it can be a lot more than that.

For instance, in 2021-22 it exported six million tonnes due to the combination of a short Canadian barley crop and an abundance of U.S. corn.

Biensch has seen one trade forecast calling for 2.4 million tonnes of U.S. corn imports in 2025-26.