US soybean production and ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered just slightly as the USDA did just minor tinkering with its 2024-25 supply-demand estimates.
Thursday’s monthly supply-demand estimates from the USDA trimmed the 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks estimate by 10 million bu from August to 550 million bu, still well up from 340 million a year earlier.
The reduction was due to a 5-million bu reduction in the beginning stocks estimate, which fell to 340 million in response to a slight increase in the 2023-24 crush. The USDA also lowered its 2024 soy production estimate by 3 million bu to 4.586 billion bu, even as it left its average yield and harvested area estimates unchanged from last month at 53.2 bu/acre and 86.3 million acres, respectively. Meanwhile, expected residual use was bumped 2 million bu higher from last month to 38 million bu.
Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting a small increase in the average yield and production estimates from last month, with ending stocks anticipated to climb to 568 million bu. Soybean futures were trading about 5-6 cents/bu higher this afternoon, after the report’s release.