Global pork consumption is poised for growth, and in its recently-published report on global pork trade, Rabobank notes that while competition among major pork exporters has intensified, the competitive landscape will continue to shift.
According to Rabobank’s report, the advantage will likely be in the hands of low-cost producers, such as Brazil and the US. Europe’s position, meanwhile, is expected to weaken, primarily due to an increase in market and regulatory requirements concerning animal welfare and sustainability.
Growing consumption supports trade
Eva Gocsik, senior analyst (animal protein) at Rabobank, noted that global pork consumption is expected to grow at a projected 0.7% compound annual growth rate from 2022 to 2030. Next year, in 2024, this is anticipated as a result of easing inflationary pressures and further recovery from African Swine Fever in Southeast Asia and Asia. In the longer term, population growth and economic development will further drive consumption growth, which will offset the ongoing decline in consumption in Europe.
Brazil’s production cost advantage
Foreign exchange rates as well as shipping, labour and pig production costs are major factors affecting the competitiveness of global pork exporters. Gocsik notes that Brazil is emerging as a remarkable player, and in 2022 captured 24% of Chinese pork imports, cementing its position as China’s second-largest supplier. Brazil continues to maintain its production cost advantage over European exporters.