Markets Show Signs of Strength

Corn Yield Optimism and Trade Deals Lift Grain Market

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ podcast with Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the team agreed that markets showed signs of strength during the week of July 1 to 5, led by shifting yield expectations, trade speculation, and supportive weather. (Podcast was released on Thursday, because markets were closed on Friday for July 4th celebrations.)

The USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports brought no major surprises. Corn acreage came in at 95.203 million acres, slightly below expectations but the highest since 2013. Soybeans were reported at 83.4 million acres, the lowest in a decade. Wheat acreage was 45.478 million, aligning with estimates. Corn stock estimates landed at 4.644 billion bushels, as expected, while soybeans and wheat showed slightly higher stocks.

Corn conditions stood at 73% good to excellent—the third highest in the last ten years—suggesting yield potential of 183 to possibly 190 bushels per acre if July weather remains favorable. With ample moisture and no forecasted extreme heat, yield prospects look strong.

The podcast also highlighted the impact of the new biofuel tax legislation. With its 45Z provision promoting North American feedstocks, the bill helped boost soybean and canola prices. Trade developments added fuel, especially with a new U.S.–Vietnam deal announced and whispers of a potential China agreement.

Cattle markets saw slight shifts after the USDA reopened U.S. borders to Mexican feeder cattle starting July 7 in gradual stages. Meanwhile, fund positions showed strong interest in canola and moderate buying in corn.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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Watch the podcast below.