Direction from StatsCan Estimates
There are always questions about the accuracy of StatsCan’s production estimates, but we can’t quite ignore them either. It’s unrealistic to expect its yield and production numbers to be bang-on. After all, “estimates” are, by definition, are approximations. These StatsCan estimates come from computer models which use satellite vegetation images, not an exact count of fields, heads, pods and seeds.
This year, we’re hearing that farmers walking their fields are surprised (and not in a good way) about yields. So we shouldn’t expect too much from satellites and computer models. Even if we dial back the high expectations, the StatsCan production estimates can still provide some good information.
No surprise, these initial results (another set will come out in mid-September) aren’t showing high yields. The satellite images from late July used in these estimates were already reflecting the deteriorating conditions from hot dry conditions. It’s possible the next set of estimates using August images will show even more declines.
StatsCan’s yield estimate for peas came in at 35.3 bu/acre, up three bushels from last year’s poor result but well below lofty expectations from earlier in the growing season. The combination of this yield with 5% more acres would mean a pea crop of 3.0 mln tonnes, 400,000 tonnes (15%) more than last year. Compared to the last 10 years though, the 2024 crop certainly isn’t huge and won’t mean heavy supplies.
Seeded area estimates from StatsCan back in June showed a solid increase in acreage of green and minor classes of peas, while yellow pea acreage was actually 1% less than last year. This means more of the production increase will show up in green peas and will help rebuild extremely low supplies.
We were more surprised to see the very positive yield estimate for lentils. We’ve heard a number of reports of disappointing yields in the southern prairies but not much yet from central regions. The 1,476 pounds (24.6 bushels) per acre would be the highest since 2020 and one of the best results since root rot became a serious production factor. The combination of 15% more acres and a 375-pound yield gain from last year would put the 2024 crop at 2.8 mln tonnes, above trade expectations of 2.4 mln tonnes.
Seeded area of green lentils increased more than reds and this would result in a large boost to the Canadian green lentil crop, with potentially heavy supplies. If the StatsCan estimate is close to correct, both red and green lentils will need stronger export demand in 2024/25.
StatsCan has also estimated a much larger 2024 chickpea crop of 330,000 tonnes. Seeded area was raised to 480,000 acres, 52% more than last year and the yield was pegged at 1,558 pounds (26.0 bushels) per acre, 450 pounds more than 2023. If these yield results hold, 2024 chickpea production would be more than double a year ago and will require a much larger export program to keep the market balanced.
Of course, Canadian crop size is only one of many factors that affect prices and other countries are also producing large pulse crops this year. The demand side of the equation is just as important and with more tonnes of Canadian pulses grown in 2024, will become even more critical in the year ahead.
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