New Research Suggests Wheat Yields May Benefit from Climate Change; Corn to Suffer

New research suggests climate change could have uneven impacts on future global crop yields.

A study from NASA suggests climate change could affect the worldwide production of wheat and corn as early as 2030, with corn yields projected to decline by almost one-quarter (24%), while wheat yields potentially increase by 17%.

Using advanced climate and agricultural models, scientists found that the change in yields is due to such things as projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations. The changes would make it more difficult to grow corn in the tropics, but could expand wheat's growing range, the research found.

Corn is grown all over the world, and large quantities are produced in countries nearer the equator. North and Central America, West Africa, Central Asia, Brazil, and China will potentially see their corn yields decline in the coming years and beyond as average temperatures rise across these breadbasket regions, putting more stress on the plants.

On the other hand, wheat, which grows best in temperate climates, may see a broader area where it can be grown as temperatures rise, including the northern US and Canada, North China Plains, Central Asia, southern Australia, and East Africa, but the gains may level off mid-century.

Temperature is not the only factor the research considered when simulating future crop yields. Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have a positive effect on photosynthesis and water retention, increasing crop yields, though often at a cost to nutrition. Rising global temperatures also are linked with changes in rainfall patterns, and the frequency and duration of heat waves and droughts, which can affect crop health and productivity. Higher temperatures also affect the length of growing seasons and accelerate crop maturity.