While some beneficial rains have improved drought conditions, average temperature since April 1 has been above normal for this time of year. In the early spring season, this is not too concerning when considering drought severity. Should this trend continue through the summer season, persistent warm conditions could contribute to increasing drought intensity or re-development.
May and Summer Climate Outlook
Temperatures
The temperature outlook for May leans heavily on the first two weeks of the month, where above average temperatures have already begun. For the month overall, the outlook updated on April 30 indicates high confidence of warmer-than-average temperatures across South Dakota. The very warm pattern may possibly break soon, as near normal to slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures are projected to enter the state from the west and north in the middle of the month. Odds are leaning towards warmer-than-average temperatures to return to the state the last week of May.
Precipitation
The monthly outlook for precipitation is more complicated. South Dakota is situated between an area favored for wetter-than-average conditions to the south and west, with drier conditions favored to the north and east. The northern and eastern areas of the state are slightly favored for drier-than-average conditions for the month of May overall. The remainder of the state has equal chances of wetter, drier, and near-average precipitation for the month. The first several days of May have brought some local thunderstorms or showers, but generally dry conditions across the state. Typically, May is one of the wettest months of the year, generally contributing 11 to 20 percent of annual precipitation.
Unfortunately, the outlook for the rest of the growing season leans towards drier-than-average conditions. Every drop of moisture will matter for the 2025 growing season. For most of the state, 40 percent of annual precipitation occurs in April through June. After this window closes, chances of drought recovery are not impossible but become more limited. For the remainder of the summer, there is also a higher chance that warmer-than-normal temperatures will return to the region, which could work to worsen drought conditions.
Impacts
While farmers welcome a spell of dry weather for planting spring crops at this time of year, recent moisture will not be enough to carry through the growing season. Additional moisture will be needed as soil moisture reserves are depleted following last year’s drought. April rain (and snow) was able to save some of the winter wheat crop that was on the verge of disaster. Timely rainfall will be essential this year to carry the row crops, pasture, and forages through a projected dry season.
Weed control will be important, as warm and dry conditions could make weeds difficult to control and the loss of limited soil moisture would be detrimental to the cash crop. Grasshoppers could have another productive year based on last year’s populations and the favorable conditions so far this year. Home gardens and lawns will likely need irrigation this year to carry through a summer with potential of limited rainfall.
Source : sdstate.edu