By Alvaro Durand-Morat
The global rice market in the last two years has been a rollercoaster driven mostly by India’s export restrictions and, since October of last year, by its massive rice crop. India’s production performance has been remarkable, breaking a new production record every year for the last ten years. USDA (2025a) estimates that production in marketing year 2024 (still in progress in India with the smaller rabi crop) will reach 147 million metric tons (MMT), milled basis, and exports could go as high as 24.5 MMT, significantly above the record 22 MMT exported in 2021.
Indonesia is also contributing to the bearish tone of the global rice market. While total rice consumption and production have followed a downward trend in the last decade, consumption rebounded in 2023 and 2024 while production kept falling, which created a surge in imports. Indonesia was the second-largest rice importer in 2023 and the largest in 2024, when imports reached 4.7 MMT. Weather is supporting the growth of production in 2025, which, together with ample stocks bought at competitive prices, suggests that Indonesia will need less than 1 MMT of imports this year (USDA, 2025a).
From the above, we can infer why long-grain rice prices have been under pressure since last October (Figure 1). Export prices out of Thailand and Vietnam have decreased by over $160/MT or 29% in the last six months, although they seem to have found a floor at around $400/MT in the last few weeks. Export prices out of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) have also decreased sharply; for example, the export price of Uruguayan 5% long-grain rice averaged $582/MT in March relative to $800/MT in October, according to FAO (2025). The export price of U.S. long-grain #2/4% decreased but to a smaller extent (12%) over the last six months and seems to have found a floor at around $650/MT.