The USDA’s May WASDE report brought key insights for 2025-26 crops. Corn production is forecast at 15.82 billion bushels, with a trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre. Soybeans are estimated at 4.34 billion bushels, with a trendline yield of 52.5.
Both of these predictions were what the trades were expecting, says Gopal but corn and soy markets did not respond as the U.S. 2025 planting pace was well ahead of the average stoking fears of more corn acres and strong yields.
Wheat, on the other hand, faced pressure due to ending stocks rising above 900 million bushels, historically a bearish signal. Agostino says he believes we have short term bottomed on wheat.
Soy oil markets reacted to biofuel mandate rumors. The proposed 2025 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) may be 4.65 billion gallons, lower than the expected 5.25 billion. Despite this, prices remained in an upward trend, with expectations for stronger demand in 2026.
Canola also saw gains due to tight supply and possible use in biofuel feedstock. Prices briefly dropped below $700 but recovered. Strong fundamentals and tight supply bode well, with the July contract could test the $800 mark to ration more demand.
Geopolitical developments also played a role. US President Trump announced major trade deals in the Middle East and suggested progress in talks with Iran. Oil markets saw a short-term increase, though prices remained capped near $65.
Weather conditions support early planting in most US regions. While southern states report delays, June and July rains could boost yields. Forecasts remain generally favorable, supporting corn and soybean outlooks.
Cattle markets remained strong due to high beef demand and disease concerns. Cash prices and consumer trends continue to support a bullish outlook, possibly pushing prices to new highs.
Finally, managed funds showed increasing interest in canola, while remaining cautious on corn and wheat. Market watchers anticipate more investment in soy and canola going forward.
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