Funds fortify bullish corn bets after USDA's supply slashing

 Speculators last month turned optimistic toward Chicago-traded corn for the first time in more than a year as U.S. exporters were posting jaw-dropping sales volumes.

In fact, U.S. corn demand has been so good that it forced the U.S. Department of Agriculture last Tuesday to slash its U.S. corn carryout estimate by 10%. That was well below analyst expectations and below year-ago levels, too.
In the week ended Tuesday, Dec. 10, money managers expanded their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 165,890 contracts from 88,220 a week earlier. The new stance is their most bullish since February 2023.

That move included the addition of more than 53,000 gross long positions, the most for any week since November 2021. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose nearly 4% during the week before notching a six-month high on Wednesday of $4.51-1/4 per bushel.

Money managers’ bullish corn views perhaps make sense given that 2024-25 U.S. corn carryout ideas have tumbled more than 30% since the start of this year. But they stick out relative to funds’ bearish wheat and soybean takes.

Whenever speculators are sufficiently net long in CBOT corn, they also tend to hold net longs in CBOT wheat and soybeans, or at least in the combination of the two. As of Dec. 10, money managers’ net shorts in wheat and soybeans combined to 125,099 futures and options contracts.

This anomalous spread between funds’ corn views and their wheat and soybean views could imply that one or more of these positions are out of bounds and due for a correction.

Money managers in the week ended Dec. 10 cut their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 58,320 contracts from 72,217 a week earlier, predominantly on short covering. That is their most bearish soy view for the time of year since 2019.

They also pared their net short in CBOT wheat to 66,779 futures and options contracts from 69,386 a week earlier. Most-active wheat had climbed 2.6% that week.

Money managers through Dec. 10 held their net short in CBOT soybean meal at near-record levels, trimming it very slightly to 72,427 futures and options contracts. They also boosted their net long in CBOT soybean oil by about 8,000 to 17,519 contracts after three weeks of active selling.

Corn futures fell 1.6% over the last three sessions while wheat dropped 1.7% and meal recorded 2% losses. Soybeans and soyoil declined fractionally, though traders will be waiting to see if heavier U.S. soybean sales at the end of last week carry into this one.