Canadian Oat Supply Forecast to be the Lowest Since 2012-13

U.S. continues to be the main destination for Canadian oats, with over 90% of the total volume

For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian oat supply is estimated at 3.8 million tonnes (Mt), marking a 3% decline compared to the previous year. This decrease is primarily attributed to a smaller carry-in stock, even though production increased. Overall, this supply is 16% below the five-year average, the lowest since 2012-13 (excluding 2021-22). 

Exports for 2024-25 are projected at 2.4 Mt, which is a 2% increase from last year but still below the five-year average. The U.S. remains the dominant market for Canadian oat grain exports, accounting for more than 75% of the exports, followed by Mexico (10%) and smaller markets like Peru and Japan.  

The U.S. also leads as the main destination for Canadian oat product exports, taking over 90% of the total volume, with Mexico, South Korea, and Japan as secondary markets. 

Domestic use of oats is forecast at 1.1 Mt, a 7% decrease from last year, driven by a reduction in feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to be tight, at only 0.35 Mt, representing a sharp decline from the previous year and nearing record lows. 

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oat futures have been volatile, with prices projected to reach $340/tonne for 2024-25, the lowest in four years. 

Looking ahead to the 2025-26 crop year, Canadian oat acreage is forecast to increase by 3% to 1.2 million hectares (Mha), although this is still 12% below the five-year average. Production is expected to rise slightly to 3.4 Mt, but total supply is anticipated to decrease by 2% year-over-year. Exports are predicted to fall, and carry-out stocks are projected to remain tight at 0.35 Mt. The CBOT price for oats in 2025-26 is projected to be $325/tonne, a $15 drop from the previous year. 

Globally, the USDA expects world oat production to decrease by 2% for 2025-26, driven by reductions in the EU and U.S. Oat imports will see slight increases, while U.S. oat imports continue their significant decline. 

This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for oats. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.   

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