Barley Supply Forecast Shows Decline in Production and Exports

China remains the largest importer of Canadian barley grain

For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian barley supply is expected to be 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), marking a 3% decrease from the previous year. This decline is primarily due to a smaller planted area, despite carry-in stocks being notably higher than the previous year and the five-year average. Compared to the five-year average, total supply is projected to be 8% lower. 

Barley exports for 2024-25 are projected at 3.0 Mt, a 2% decrease from the previous year and 11% lower than the five-year average. China remains the largest importer of Canadian barley grain, accounting for nearly 70% of exports. Other major export destinations include Japan and the U.S. For barley products, the U.S. leads, followed by Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. 

Domestic use of barley in Canada is expected to reach 5.7 Mt, which represents a 3% increase compared to the previous year. However, feed use is anticipated to decrease. The carry-out stocks for the 2024-25 crop year are forecasted at 0.8 Mt, a 31% decline from last year. 

In terms of pricing, the Lethbridge average barley price has recovered from a multi-year low of $255/tonne in August, reaching $310/tonne in April. The average price for the crop year is projected at $295/tonne, the lowest since 2021-22. 

For the 2025-26 crop year, Canadian barley area is forecast to be 2.5 million hectares (Mha), a 2% decrease from the previous year and 14% below the five-year average. Production is expected to decline to 8.1 Mt, down 1% from 2024-25, while total supply is projected at 9.0 Mt. Export forecasts are lower, and carry-out stocks are anticipated to remain at reduced levels. The Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected to drop to $285/tonne, influenced by lower U.S. corn prices. 

Globally, the USDA expects world barley production for 2025-26 to increase by 2%, driven by growth in the EU and Russia. However, global barley consumption is forecast to fall, especially for feed use. 

This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for barley. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025. 

Photo Credit: oklahoma-state-university