“The slightly smaller crop combined with a little better demand means projected 2013 crop ending stocks could fall to 1.654 billion bushels,” says Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the research. “That’s about 140 million less than the government’s last estimate, and it could help prices find at least a little stability.”
Farm Futures estimates Dec. 1 corn stocks at 10.782 billion bushels, suggesting feed usage in line with previous estimates. They survey found only a small 4 million bushel decline in soybean production, with the total put at 3.254 billion bushels. Yields reported by growers surveyed of 42.7 bpa were a little less than USDA’s last estimate of 43, but the magazine found harvested acres up 522,000 to 76.21 million.
The magazine estimates stable soybean ending stocks of 147 million, 3 million less than the government’s December forecast. Dec. 1 soybean stocks were put at 2.224 billion, up 258 million from a year ago.
“Strong demand should keep stocks from growing much despite the increases in Dec. 1 inventory,” said Knorr.
The Jan. 10 reports include USDA’s first estimate of winter wheat seedings, though Farm Futures first surveyed farmers about their plans last summer. The latest survey puts seedings at 43.347 million, up less than 1% from a year ago, but about 250,000 more than the magazine found late in the summer.
“Our latest survey found farmers seeded less soft red winter wheat but more hard red winter wheat,” said Knorr. “The late harvest this fall and better moisture on the Plains worked into these shifts.”
Initial results from the survey were released today, one day prior to the Farm Futures Business Summit in St. Louis. On Tuesday, Farm Futures will release updated corn, soybean and spring wheat planting intentions for 2014.