Fall Forecast: More Prairie Dryness

The same dry conditions that plagued much of Western Canada this summer will likely stretch into the fall as well, according to AccuWeather’s seasonal outlook.

As the map below shows, the AccuWeather forecasts suggests much of the main production region will continue to wrestle with below normal precipitation throughout the fall season, as an influx of storms to the north may prevent cold and snow from dropping into the southern Prairies.

"This type of storm track will also mean a windier- and drier-than-normal pattern for much of the southern Prairies, which have been hit hard by drought this spring and summer," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, severe to exceptional drought conditions were gripping the southern Prairies as of the end of July. Calgary and Edmonton were both experiencing extreme drought conditions -- the second-highest level of drought. Meanwhile Saskatoon and Winnipeg were both under the highest level of drought: exceptional.

A dry fall will likely mean more misery for Prairie producers in 2022, as any moisture before the winter freeze up is often critical for the germination and early development of crops seeded in the spring.

Meanwhile, much of eastern Canada can expect a mild fall, Anderson said. Conditions will stay placid around the major cities of Toronto and Quebec thanks to nearby water temperatures, with precipitation amounts likely to be near normal.

"Above-normal water temperatures throughout the Great Lakes will likely persist through the season," Anderson said. "This will have its biggest influence on nighttime temperatures, being milder, across the region."

Milder air won't mean "perfect conditions" every day for the entire season, however. Anderson noted that shots of cold air could penetrate Ontario and northern Quebec later in the season, while severe thunderstorms from the summer could linger into September for the provinces.