EU likely in market for Canadian durum

WESTERN PRODUCER — The European Union can be added to the list of traditional customers that are going to require ample supplies of durum in 2022-23.

The European Commission is forecasting 7.5 million tonnes of production for the region, which isn’t bad but is below average.

The EU is beginning the year with a paltry 500,000 tonnes of carry-in and will finish with an abysmal 100,000 tonnes of carryout, according to the EC. That is a fraction of the usual carryout of around two million tonnes.

“I don’t think they can carry out that little amount of durum,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.

He noted the EC’s production estimate was made on March 15. Since then, serious dryness has developed in Spain and France.

“I think they’re in trouble, especially given the heat that region has had this past couple of weeks,” he said.

Conditions are better in other major durum growing regions like Sicily, southern Italy and Greece.

Burnett believes the final production number will dip below 7.5 million tonnes, which will make the balance sheet even tighter.