2026 hog forecasts

The year ahead is expected to bring more pork and lower hog prices. Hog prices in 2025 averaged $68.80/cwt (liveweight) the highest since 2022. USDA has forecast average liveweight hog prices at $67/cwt for 2026. They averaged $63.41/cwt in 2024. 

Hog futures currently expect carcass hog prices to rally steadily to $108 in midsummer. The February 2026 lean hog futures contract is trading $5/cwt above the February 2027 contract.  

Look for a modest price rally during February. USDA is forecasting 2026 hog prices will be down 2.6% from 2025.

Pork cutout value typically mirrors hog prices, only higher. Last year pork cutout peaked at $120/cwt in late June.  Hog prices peaked a few weeks later.

The average retail price of pork in December was $4.856 per pound the lowest month since February. The average retail pork price in 2025 was $4.947 per pound, breaking the record set in 2022.

Hog prices and pork cutout values tend to peak in midsummer while the retail pork price often peaks in late summer or early fall.

USDA says 2025 pork production totaled 27.572 billion pounds, down from 27.789 billion pounds in 2024. USDA is forecasting 2026 pork production at 28.215 billion pounds, up 2.3% from 2025 and up 1.5% from 2024.