Argentina crop ratings collapsed again this week:
- Corn good-to-excellent: -12%
- Soybeans good-to-excellent: -8%
A prolonged dry spell is amplifying concerns about global meal and soybean supply.
Agostino notes that despite USDA pressure earlier in the month, markets are recovering, “Both soybean and wheat futures have traded back above the pre-USDA January crop report — a positive technical chart signal. A monster weekly U.S. export report is price supportive, but a kick-the-can-down-the-road on E15 was very disappointing.”
Soybeans Form Technical Bottom; Corn and Meal Rebound
Soybean charts are close to completing a double-bottom formation, a pattern Agostino has been tracking for weeks.
“We didn’t close above the $10.70 ceiling this week, but the chart still closed above the January USDA crop report low,” Agostino says. “All in all — this is good news. I’m calling it a win.”
Corn also posted a recovery:
- Corn: +8 cents
- Soybeans: +15 cents
- Meal: +10.70 (supported by Argentina’s dryness)
- Soy oil: +102 (biofuel quota chatter boosting futures)
Following last week’s China–Canada trade news, canola climbed another 12.30.
Natural Gas Soars 87% on Extreme Cold
The Farms.com Risk Management team had warned of another cold-weather spike — and it arrived in force. Natural gas futures surged:
- +87% in one week
- Largest weekly rise since 1990
- Highest price levels since 2022
Agostino cautions, “Parabolic moves don’t end well. If you're long, take profits. If not, be careful going short too.”
Crude oil also moved higher on geopolitical tension, particularly increased U.S. naval presence near Iran.
Wheat Wakes Up on Winterkill Concerns
After months of quiet trade, wheat futures found life. Traders reacted to frost risks across winter wheat regions, even though many fields remain protected under snow cover.
Wheat managed key technical closes:
- Closed above Jan. 12, 2026, USDA WASDE day close
- March futures: up 21 cents in two sessions, now $5.29/bu
- Next resistance: 200-day moving average at $5.57
Agostino warns the rally could stall
“We’re creating that triple bottom, but we’ve been here before. False starts happen. Still too much global supply. Way too early — we won’t know until April.”
Safe-Haven Buying: Gold Nears $5,000, Silver Eyes $125
Geopolitical uncertainty pushed investors toward precious metals:
- Gold: approaching $5,000
- Silver: at $100, with analysts suggesting $125 is possible
Central banks worldwide continue to aggressively accumulate metal reserves.
The U.S. dollar fell, and Agostino warns that a break below 96 cents could send it tumbling to 88. Meanwhile, he expects the Canadian dollar to strengthen, likely breaking 74–75 cents.
Texas Drought Worsens — A Warning Signal?
The latest U.S. drought monitor shows:
- 69% of the U.S. in dry-to-drought conditions
- Compared to 56% during the 2012 drought year
Texas remains a major concern. Gopal and Agostino warn that the pattern aligns with long-term drought cycles.
Policy Disappointment: E15 Delayed Again
The U.S. government once again delayed including E15 in a key funding bill. While bridge payments are scheduled for February 28, Agostino says it’s far from enough: “Rural America is suffering.”
Land Opportunities
Agostino closed the week with a message about opportunity, “‘I wish I would have bought that land next to me.’ If the opportunity arises and you have the capital, take the risk. There's never a perfect time.”
Watch the full podcase video below.
For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.
Podcast lover who already has a YouTube.com account? To receive notifications when the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast is posted each week, be sure to Subscribe to the Farms.com channel, and ensure you have and ensure you have "All" selected. This way you will be notified whenever we post a new video. But remember, you have to be logged in to receive the notifications on YouTube.com.