Revisions in estimated production earlier this month had little impact on projected 2021-22 ending stocks for most Canadian crops.
In updated supply-demand estimates late Friday afternoon that reflect the final 2021 crop production estimates released by Statistics Canada on Dec. 3, Agriculture Canada pegged total grains and oilseeds ending stocks for the current marketing year at 7.16 million tonnes - little changed from 6.93 million in November.
Instead, Ag Canada basically offset the changes in production in many cases by raising or lowering its export and/or estimated domestic use forecasts.
In the case of canola, the December StatsCan report lowered this year’s crop to 12.6 million tonnes, down about 200,000 from the agency’s previous estimate in September. Ag Canada blunted some of the impact of the smaller crop by lowering its export forecast by 100,000 tonnes from November to 5.4 million – down by almost half from a year earlier. The domestic crush was lowered as well, falling to an estimated 8.612 million tonnes from 8.699 million in November and 10.74 million the previous year.
With those revisions, the 2021-22 canola ending stocks estimate was left steady from November at 500,000 tonnes, versus 1.76 million a year earlier. The average expected 2021-22 canola price was also left unchanged at $1,000/tonne.
Durum production saw a deep cut – falling to 2.654 million tonnes from StatsCan’s previous estimate of 3.545 million – but Ag Canada left its ending stocks forecast unchanged from last month at 450,000 tonnes, the lowest since 1984-85. To keep ending stocks steady, the export forecast was slashed to just 2.3 million tonnes compared to 3.1 million in November and 5.773 million a year earlier.
Ag Canada attributed the 25% reduction in the durum export forecast from last month to “the shortage in production and supply.”
The wheat (excl durum) and all wheat ending stocks estimates of 3 million and 3.45 million tonnes, respectively, were also unchanged from November.
Barley ending stocks for 2021-22 were left steady from November as well, holding at 300,000 tonnes, even though the StatsCan report pegged production at 6.948 million tonnes versus the agency’s earlier estimate of 7.141 million. The barley export forecast was untouched from last month at 2.25 million tonnes but Ag Canada cut expected domestic use to 5.259 million tonnes from 5.452 million.
The oats production estimate was raised slightly from the previous forecast, but ending stocks were nevertheless held at 200,000 tonnes as Ag Canada instead bumped up its export forecast to 1.877 million from 1.85 million in November.
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