Durum Stocks Tighten from Last Month; All Wheat Heavier

Agriculture Canada has tightened its new-crop durum outlook from last month, while its all wheat numbers have gotten heavier. 

In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates on Thursday, Ag Canada trimmed its 2022-23 durum ending stocks forecast to 700,000 tonnes, down 300,000 from a month earlier although still well up from the downwardly revised 2021-22 ending stocks forecast of 450,000. Meanwhile, wheat (excl durum) stocks are now estimated at 5 million tonnes, up 1 million from June and 1.8 million higher than the forecast for the previous year. 

All wheat ending stocks were revised up to 5.7 million tonnes - an increase of 700,000 from June and up strongly from 3.55 million in 2021-22. 

This month’s supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s July acreage report, which lowered the durum planted area estimate to 6 million acres from the original forecast of 6.22 million. On the other hand, wheat (excl durum) planted area increased to 19.55 million acres from 19.9 million previously. 

With the increase in planted area, wheat (excl durum) output for this year is now seen at 28.24 million tonnes, an increase of about 830,000 tonnes from June and way up from the drought-ravaged 2021 crop of 18.99 million. On the other hand, durum production is now estimated at 5.47 million tonnes, down from 5.67 million in June but still up from 2.65 million last year. 

Despite the month-over-month decline in production, new-crop durum exports are steady from last month at 4.4 million tonnes, with domestic use largely unchanged at 854,000 tonnes. The 2022-23 season average price is seen at $500/tonne, steady from June and down $140 from a year earlier. 

Wheat (excl durum) exports, at 18 million tonnes, are up 200,000 from last month and up sharply from 12.5 million in 2021-22. The price forecast of $430/tonne is down $20 from June but up $5 from a year earlier.