Current Conditions Suggest Lower Spring Runoff Levels for Manitoba

Manitoba is looking at low event spring runoff - at least for now. 

Released Thursday, the Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report indicated that following a relatively dry summer and fall, soil moisture levels – as well river and lake levels - were all normal to below normal throughout the province ahead of winter freeze up. 

Meanwhile, the precipitation outlook for the remainder of this winter and spring remains relatively dry as well. Thanks to El Nino weather patterns, most Manitoba basins are forecasted to receive normal to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the remainder of the winter and spring. 

The report noted that although much of the precipitation in November fell as snow, warmer temperatures allowed for the snow to melt and contribute to soil moisture levels, leaving very little snow accumulation on the ground.  

“These factors are possible indicators of lower spring runoff levels, but the long-term spring runoff forecast for spring 2024 cannot be confirmed as conditions could change,” the province said in a release. 

Although Manitoba rivers and lakes have the capacity to receive a normal amount of spring run-off, much will still depend on actual precipitation levels and snowmelt rate, Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Lisa Naylor added. 

Naylor said further basin condition updates will be released as necessary. 

Last month, the Saskatchewan Conditions at Freeze Up report suggested little risk of an above normal spring runoff in that province as well, due to below to well below normal soil moisture.