For the first time in three years, U.S. cotton acreage is expected to increase. While the anticipated boost in cottonseed supplies would suggest more attractive cottonseed prices for dairy producers this fall, experts are mixed on where end-of-season prices could land.
Larry Johnson of Cottonseed LLC, La Crosse, Wis., expects strong cottonseed prices, despite increased acres this growing season. Tight cottonseed supplies and strong milk prices, he says, are key reasons he doesn’t foresee additional downward pressure on new crop cottonseed prices, especially given that new crop cottonseed is currently discounted up to $150 per ton compared to old crop cottonseed prices. “However, if milk prices fall, cottonseed prices could parallel the drop.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 9, 2014, shows the 2014 anticipated crop at 11.1 million acres, an increase of 700,000 acres, or 7 percent, compared to last year. The 2014 crop is forecast to produce 14.5 million bales, netting about 4.9 to 5.0 million tons of cottonseed, compared to 4.203 million tons in 2013 – more than a 10 percent increase.
As always, Texas weather conditions will impact cottonseed prices. Texas A&M University Professor and Extension Specialist Economist of Cotton Marketing John R.C. Robinson says The Lone Star State is expected to plant 58 percent of the nation’s cotton crop in 2014.